Are Exports a Driver of Economic Growth? Empirical evidence from Libya

Authors

  • محمود دنف جامعة طرابلس كلية الاقتصاد
  • emad jhadr

Keywords:

Exports, Gross Domestic Product, Economic Growth, ARDL Model, Toda-Yamamoto Causality

Abstract

This study sought to analyze the relationship between exports (LNEXP) and economic growth (LNGDP) in Libya from 1990 to 2022 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results indicate a positive long-run co-integrating relationship, where a 1% increase in exports leads to an approximate 0.25% increase in economic growth. A short-run relationship was also identified. The error correction term (ECT) coefficient was –1.210553, indicating a remarkably rapid adjustment towards long-run equilibrium, with approximately 121% of the disequilibrium being corrected within one year. Furthermore, the analysis revealed a negative short-run contribution from the lagged economic growth variable to the current growth rate, with coefficients of -0.444118, -0.408850, and -0.447702 for the three years, respectively. The study concludes by discussing the implications of these findings, emphasizing the need to invest in productive export sectors, and suggesting directions for future research.

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Published

2025-12-01

How to Cite

دنف م., & jhadr ع. (2025). Are Exports a Driver of Economic Growth? Empirical evidence from Libya. Journal of Economics and Political Sciences, 19(2), 1–18. Retrieved from https://journals.uot.edu.ly/index.php/jeps/article/view/2184

Issue

Vol. 19 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Economics and Political Science

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2025 Journal of Economics and Political Sciences

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