https://journals.uot.edu.ly/index.php/ljvms <div class="page" title="Page 2"> <div class="section"> <div class="layoutArea"> <div class="column"> <p>Libyan Journal of Veterinary and Medical Sciences (Libyan J. Vet. Med. Sci.) is a biannual journal that publishes peer-reviewed papers on the fields of veterinary and biomedical sciences. Contributions may be in the form of original research or review articles and case reports. The goal of this journal is to provide a platform for scientists to promote, share and discuss various new issues and developments in all aspects of veterinary and biomedical sciences. The journal adopts an open access policy for the content of its published scientific papers, without any article processing or publication charges nor restrictions for access and use.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> en-US [email protected] (Libyan Journal of Veterinary and Medical Sciences) [email protected] (Abdulrhman Alrtib) Thu, 13 Aug 2026 11:54:06 +0000 OJS 3.3.0.9 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss 60 https://journals.uot.edu.ly/index.php/ljvms/article/view/2635 <p lang="en-GB" align="justify"><a name="_GoBack"></a> <span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><strong>Background: </strong></span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Brucellosis, primarily caused by </span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><em>Brucella abortus</em></span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">, is a zoonotic disease of major concern in Libya, where cattle husbandry forms an integral component of rural livelihoods and where the post-2011 collapse of veterinary surveillance infrastructure has heightened underreporting risk.</span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><strong> Aim: </strong></span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">This study aimed to demonstrate and compare two disease-mapping approaches, the classical Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) method and the Bayesian Poisson-Gamma model, for estimating the relative risk (RR) of </span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><em>B. abortus</em></span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> in cattle across all 22 official Libyan administrative districts, using district-level case counts constructed to be illustrative of patterns reported in the literature rather than official surveillance records. </span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><strong>Methods: </strong></span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Illustrative case-count data, informed by patterns reported in published Libyan cattle and small-ruminant seroprevalence studies and aggregate veterinary indicators for the 2018–2024 period, were analysed using R and ArcGIS to generate relative risk estimates and thematic disease maps under both models.</span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><strong> Results: </strong></span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The SMR method produced unstable, zero-valued estimates for districts with no reported cases (Tripoli, Benghazi, and Ghat), masking their true underlying risk. The Poisson-Gamma model, by contrast, generated smoothed, non-zero estimates for all districts, reclassifying these zero-case districts from “no observed risk” to defensible low-risk categories and revealing more plausible spatial risk patterns consistent with known underreporting in urban and remote veterinary surveillance. Both models consistently identified Zawiya and Jufra as very high-risk districts and Jafara and Zawara as high-risk districts, aligning with spatial patterns reported in prior Libyan seroprevalence research on the western coastal strip and central oasis settlements.</span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><strong> Conclusion: </strong></span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">As a methodological demonstration, the Poisson-Gamma model shows superior performance for brucellosis risk mapping in data-sparse post-conflict settings, such as Libya, and its adoption for future brucellosis surveillance is recommended once verified and district-level cattle surveillance data become available.</span></span></p> Maryam Ahmed Salem Alramah Copyright (c) 2026 Libyan Journal of Veterinary and Medical Sciences https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://journals.uot.edu.ly/index.php/ljvms/article/view/2635 Thu, 13 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000